China seems to be gearing up for confrontation with the US after Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States on November 6th.
China is in a pinch. Donald Trump won the elections on November 6th and will start his second term as president in Jan 2025. Considering Donald Trump’s history with the Dragon, it is no wonder the country is on high alert. The last time he was the President he imposed a slew of sanctions on Beijing.
China’s History With Donald Trump
Beijing has had a troubled history with Donald Trump. The first term was marked by significant tensions in trade, technology, COVID-19, and matters related to Taiwan.
Donald Trump’s approach to the Dragon was unpredictable. It involved aggressive economic policies, national security concerns about technology, and complex diplomatic interactions regarding Taiwan.
Let’s cover these a little more in-depth.
Trade Tariffs
Donald Trump’s first term involved a trade war with the dragon. He began his presidency with a strong focus on trade, viewing US trade policies as unfairly biased to benefit the dragon. He blamed the Chinese for engaging in currency manipulation and stealing intellectual property.
This resulted in the initiation of a trade war in 2018, an imposition of $360 billion in trade tariffs on Chinese imported goods. This was resolved to some extent in 2020 when the dragon agreed to purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over two years with an added promise to enhance protections for intellectual property. However, many of these promises were not kept leading to further straining of trade ties between the two countries.
Trump in his campaign promises had threatened to impose a whopping 60% tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S. The current Chinese regime is worried that Donald Trump will re-impose these tariffs once he resumes power on Jan 20th, 2025 reducing China’s economic growth by approximately 2.5 percentage points.
Taiwan Relations
Trump in his impeccable style indulged in diplomacy with American allies while in power. However, he broke protocol and connected with Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen in December 2016. This had not happened in decades.
This greatly angered Beijing but Taiwan was perceived to receive America’s support against the Dragon. Trump also increased military support for Taiwan. This support included arms sales which further irked Beijing.
Trump practiced a different style of international diplomacy in his first term. stopped military support to Pakistan terming the country as a hotbed for global terrorism. He withdrew American forces from Afghanistan. Both of these decisions were different from normal American Diplomatic actions.
It would be interesting to see how he moves forward with Taiwan in his second term.
Technological Competition
Beijing’s worries did not stop with the above two issues. It was openly criticized for targeting American intellectual property. Huawei was in the middle of this storm. It was targeted over national security concerns and its access to U.S. technology and markets was restricted.
The country was also directly blamed for the COVID-19 outbreak. Donald Trump blamed the country for the pandemic terming the COVID-19 strain as the “China virus”. This was the lowest point in the bilateral relations between the two countries as Trump reached the end of his first term.
Huwaei in the meanwhile has altogether abandoned Android and shifted to HarmonyOS. The world has also forgotten about the COVID-19 2020 pandemic. It will be interesting to see how Trump deals with Beijing in these matters in his second term.
Potential Negotiations
International Trade analysts are still optimistic about Trump’s handling of Beijing in his second term because Beijing has weakened its economic position globally. Any further sanctions would deteriorate the trade relations between the two countries.
Trump’s administration might handle the country differently in his second term.
Conclusion
Donald Trump has always handled any situation without following the general norm of the President.
How will he handle Beijing, only time will tell!